Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 4.784524 5.599719 6.499998 7.566351 8.793247 10.158902 11.792462
2025-09-21 3.505520 4.597967 5.933757 7.679581 9.892654 12.595356 16.136067
2025-09-28 2.686483 3.879683 5.468516 7.720995 10.810943 14.876541 20.601779
2025-10-05 2.340513 3.662911 5.552706 8.416580 12.604882 18.454930 27.179503
2025-10-12 1.978981 3.329303 5.384770 8.689124 13.800513 21.320271 33.103570
2025-10-19 1.705551 3.063135 5.250305 8.956343 14.980511 24.255757 39.429435
2025-10-26 1.448890 2.767164 5.006729 8.991457 15.771259 26.653421 45.166458
2025-11-02 1.195922 2.424380 4.620958 8.716351 15.993673 28.142619 49.584710
2025-11-09 0.973023 2.090623 4.190673 8.286542 15.873376 29.021139 53.046882
2025-11-16 0.828231 1.878228 3.943784 8.142405 16.219665 30.699304 58.001433
2025-11-23 0.716002 1.709557 3.751021 8.065781 16.666615 32.579659 63.471136
2025-11-30 0.662857 1.656856 3.779440 8.422421 17.969850 36.127149 72.277316
2025-12-07 0.586801 1.541040 3.664755 8.483770 18.725997 38.779771 79.782535
2025-12-14 0.518354 1.429887 3.543359 8.515550 19.430898 41.417561 87.549402
2025-12-21 0.458121 1.326371 3.421848 8.528260 20.095292 44.040862 95.546047
2025-12-28 0.450296 1.356224 3.615061 9.278473 22.435155 50.275579 111.358472
2026-01-04 0.416106 1.308356 3.613176 9.572331 23.797109 54.613681 123.675167
2026-01-11 0.385236 1.263253 3.610615 9.863040 25.183374 59.130528 136.766523
2026-01-18 0.346119 1.185727 3.511839 9.900877 25.982434 62.448762 147.590316
2026-01-25 0.298163 1.070461 3.292990 9.599808 25.931766 63.877107 154.417165
2026-02-01 0.250885 0.945746 3.025702 9.129560 25.403062 64.162852 158.713656
2026-02-08 0.220537 0.869306 2.882181 8.971826 25.639813 66.234914 167.244170
2026-02-15 0.196217 0.807612 2.771226 8.887972 26.055869 68.766105 177.055575